Elon's Email and My TSLA Stock Strategy

Thanks to some weak economic data, the markets are once again pricing in recession fears…

FYI: any text in italics denotes it’s my take or my own added context. I’d also recommend: after you click an X hyperlink to login on the web if you’re not already. It will make the experience much better and you should also have the option to open the links directly in the X app if you’d prefer

⚡️ Elon’s upcoming meeting

The chairman of Samsung and chairman of Hyundai are meeting with Elon this weekend in Paris. They’re meeting to talk about next-gen tech development and to explore future cooperation. FSD licensing anyone? They’re also expected to talk about EV batteries (Samsung is also developing 46xx batteries). Elon has met with the chair of Samsung a few times before, but this is the first time Elon will meet the Hyundai chairman.

⚡️ Elon’s latest MPI claim

On X he said, “We have a clear path to doubling average miles between interventions in August”

The problem is that he was replying to the teslafsdtracker dashboard. This can be interesting to look at but the sample size is incredibly small. The user miles that have been logged on FSD 12.3.6 are only 24,222. The miles to criticial disengagement was 181 (we can think of this as a MPI metric…miles per intervention). Here’s the dashboard with 12.5 and 12.5.1 data:

So far on 12.5 and 12.5.1 the miles to critical DE (disengagement) are 346 which is 1.9x better than 12.3.6 but given the microscopic nature of this sample size I’m not sure it’s worth analyzing. Elon was likely referring to fleet-wide data and having a clear path to doubling the MPI in that regard, but he also said that 12.4 would be a 5-10x improvement in MPI but that never even made it to a wide release…

⚡️ An Elon email…real?

I haven’t been able to confirm if this email is real or not, but it seems legit and everything checks out. Previously these cars awaiting delivery needed to calibrate the cameras for 20-25 miles but it’s not clear if Tesla has solved that hurdle yet. The far more important part is last though: confirmation that Tesla is working with regulators in other countries for a WORLDWIDE FSD release. Again, if this is real…

⚡️ Lightning Round

• Tesla is now offering 1.99% APR in the US for all Model 3 trims except the RWD. This is for loans of 36-72 months. Valid for orders placed by August 31st and delivered by September 30th. Tesla has found a lever that they like, and they are already back to the well. Seems like Tesla likes the margin tradeoff for the volume boost this provides

• Australians: the Model 3 is now available at a 1.99% APR, $0 down

• Hertz is unloading EV’s faster than originally planned as they’re still reeling from higher depreciation costs. Hertz said it will sell thousands of Tesla EV’s this year and they expect the fleet overhaul to be substantially done by the end of 2025. Looks like we may see the average price of a used Tesla hit $29,xxx in the next few weeks…I’ll be looking for the next Charlie Bilello chart

• The tariff hike on Chinese EV’s (going from 25% to 100%) that was supposed to go into effect today has been delayed ~2 weeks thanks to paperwork and reviewing 1,100 comments on the matter. The more important tariff hike is the one on lithium batteries (going from 7.5% to 25%). Of the $18B of Chinese goods subject to these hikes, li-ion batteries account for $13.2B

• Investigators from the Washington State Patrol said they discovered a 2022 Model S was operating FSD at the time of a crash that killed a motorcyclist near Seattle in April. The investigation is still ongoing in this case. This has been picked up by many other news outlets and they’re literally using Autopilot and FSD interchangeably showing a severe misunderstanding of the differentiation. In this case, even the driver told a trooper that he was using Autopilot and was distracted by his cellphone. I wouldn’t say this one is official yet, but I believe this would be the first death from FSD (not Autopilot) if this is ultimately confirmed. Stay safe…

• 16 years ago today Franz joined Tesla and he said “so many more exciting things to come!” Sixteen years at Tesla is an incredibly long time. Granted, Franz likely doesn’t have the same hours or demands as an engineer or somone on the production line, but as I’ve said in the past, the Elon/Franz duo has not missed when it comes to vehicle releases

• Enrollment is now open for Elon’s new school (Ad Astra) for kids ages 3-9 in Bastrop, Texas. My favorite thing about this school so far is their enrollment policy: Ad Astra School admits students based on merit, regardless of any race, color, national and ethnic origin. Refreshing

• Mobileye said multiple global manufacturers have made meaningful reductions to their second half production estimates, which is primarily related to China. MobilEye supplies driver assistance systems to automakers and has seen a decline in orders from Chinese carmakers. Mobileye said one of its customers outside of China delayed its launch of a high volume ADAS. That combined with new tariffs in the US and Europe led to Mobileye lowering its guidance

• Elon said one day, Tesla will make a drivetrain per second. That would be over 31.5M per year…maybe Tesla has long-term plans to become a powertrain supplier 🤔

• The markets seem concerned about a possible recession thinking the Fed was too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. The ISM manufacturing index (factory activity in the US) came in at 46.8% (worse than expected and an 8-month low - a signal of economic contraction). All of these metrics always have some seasonality and sector trends that underpin them and skew the numbers, but these are metrics the stock and bond markets watch closely

⚡️ As for my TSLA stock strategy

As always, none of this is meant to be taken as financial advice. My situation, goals, risk tolerance and objectives are likely different than yours! With that said though, I’ve always wanted to start sharing more about the details because I love it and I always like hearing strategies other people are using as I craft my own. Fun fact: I was weeks away from opening a hedge fund with a subscriber three years ago.

But let me repeat: buy and hold as you have funds is perfectly fine and the proper strategy for most people.

I maintain a monthly DCA amount into TSLA (I’m also accumulating BTC and ADA). I do try to time TSLA buys as best I can each month, but that’s just to stay sharp with TA and to test my theories. I do however have a stash of dry powder that I’ve been saving that I’m hoping to deploy below $200. Of that powder I invested ~10% after the Q2 earnings drop at $221. I plan to invest another 20% if TSLA goes below $210 and then ~50% of what’s remaining if TSLA goes below $200. With what powder would remain in that scenario I plan to buy some 2026 LEAPS. I’m watching the premiums and strikes but these change daily and if we go below $180 they’ll look much different than they do now but ideally, that’s where I’d empty the coffers on TSLA and then just resume my normal DCA from there.

I have not moved these white lines or the predicted resistance/support circles since I drew them a few weeks back and shared on X. While we wicked above the resistance, we still have yet to have a weekly close above it. In my book, that means we’re still in a structural downtrend dating back to November 2021. The 200 week MA (moving average) has flipped to resistance and failed to provide support. I turned it off for the screenshot but the VRVP (visible range volume profile) shows lower volume between where TSLA closed today ($216.86) and $200 (which has been the PoC - point of control). That just means it’s a bit more likely Tesla falls to the $200 range (less buyers historically in that range).

Of course none of this is guaranteed. Tesla could start printing green days and be back at $250 before we know it. In that case, I’d just increase my monthly DCA amount slightly and save the dry powder for a rainy day. However, based on the setup, technicals and fundamentals right now, selling pressure feels more likely to me in the coming weeks. There are reasons for optimism given rate cuts, the Robotaxi event and Elon has been hyping the upcoming FSD releases in August but remember, macro always steers everything first and foremost and the jury is out on how the next few months will play out. There are plenty of indicator contradictions both bullish and bearish, it’s tough to get a read. More to come on my TSLA plans and thoughts in a future newsletter!

• For tomorrow (Friday) I will not be uploading a video. It’s my wife’s birthday weekend and we’re also celebrating my dad’s belated birthday. We have a mini road trip planned…pumped to try 12.5.1 some more but was hoping we’d have the highway code merged with FSD. No worries though, we have some bigger road trips coming up later this year. I may or may not send out a newsletter tomorrow depending on news flow. If I don’t, hope you all have a wonderful and a safe weekend! Thank you for reading.